Commercial Risk Outlook Report – March 2016
SV Partners has released the findings of our first Commercial Risk Outlook Report for March 2016, providing an analysis of the current state of Australian businesses from an insolvency and overall economic perspective.
This Report analyses industries and regions within Australia where operating businesses are predicted to face financial hard times within the next 12 months. This Report also develops a multidimensional view of the drivers behind commercial risk for Australian business owners, while providing insights from a professional insolvency perspective.
The Commercial Risk data attempts to predict financial failure based on the likelihood of adverse events including external administrations, petitions to windup, Mercantile enquiries, defaults, bankruptcies, court writs and default judgements within the next 12 months. This commercial risk data is fundamentally based on bureau information over a 5 year period.
The Commercial Risk statistics in this Report are from the latest bureau findings from December 2015, predicting default activity for the next 12 months.
Nationally, the top 5 industries at risk of default within the next 12 months are:
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
- Retail Trade
- Transport, Postal & Warehousing
Northern Territory and Queensland are indicating the highest levels of potential defaults statewide proportionate to the number of businesses with 2.8% and 2.4% respectively
The top five areas where businesses are most at risk of default within the next 12 months are:
- VIC: Melbourne – Inner (2,552 businesses) – 2% of businesses in the region
- QLD: Gold Coast (2,027 businesses) – 3% of businesses in the region
- NSW: Sydney – City and Inner South (1,938 businesses) – 2% of businesses in the region
- NSW: Sydney – Inner South West (1,792 businesses) – 2.8% of businesses in the region
- VIC: Melbourne – South East (1,730 businesses) – 2.6% of businesses in the region